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Febbraio 23, 2004

Cambiamento climatico e censura politica della scienza




Un articolo dell'Observer di ieri dununcia il fatto che il cambiamento climatico in atto sul nostro pianeta - e che i governi di tutto il mondo "sembrano" ingorare - potrebbe portare a guerre e distruzioni. L'argomento riguardante il "climate change" e la sua censura e' stato oggetto di discussione anche durante il congresso tenuto dall'Unione dei scienziati preoccupati che hanno dichiarato che l'Amministazione Bush distorce sistematicamente le notizie scientifiche per favorire le sue politiche.

L'intero rapporto mensionato dall'Observer puo' essere letto qui.

Di seguito l'articolo originale.

Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us

The Observer - Sunday February 22, 2004,12374,1153530,00.html

· Secret report warns of rioting and nuclear war
· Britain will be 'Siberian' in less than 20 years
· Threat to the world is greater than terrorism
Mark Townsend and Paul Harris in New York

Climate change over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe
costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters..

A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer,
warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain
is plunged into a 'Siberian' climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict,
mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.

The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the
edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure
dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability
vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents.

'Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life,' concludes the
Pentagon analysis. 'Once again, warfare would define human life.'

The findings will prove humiliating to the Bush administration, which has
repeatedly denied that climate change even exists. Experts said that they
will also make unsettling reading for a President who has insisted national
defence is a priority.

The report was commissioned by influential Pentagon defence adviser Andrew
Marshall, who has held considerable sway on US military thinking over the
past three decades. He was the man behind a sweeping recent review aimed at
transforming the American military under Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

Climate change 'should be elevated beyond a scientific debate to a US national
security concern', say the authors, Peter Schwartz, CIA consultant and former
head of planning at Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and Doug Randall of the
California-based Global Business Network.

An imminent scenario of catastrophic climate change is 'plausible and would
challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered
immediately', they conclude. As early as next year widespread flooding by a
rise in sea levels will create major upheaval for millions.

Last week the Bush administration came under heavy fire from a large body of
respected scientists who claimed that it cherry-picked science to suit its
policy agenda and suppressed studies that it did not like. Jeremy Symons, a
former whistleblower at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), said that
suppression of the report for four months was a further example of the White
House trying to bury the threat of climate change.

Senior climatologists, however, believe that their verdicts could prove the
catalyst in forcing Bush to accept climate change as a real and happening
phenomenon. They also hope it will convince the United States to sign up to
global treaties to reduce the rate of climatic change.

A group of eminent UK scientists recently visited the White House to voice
their fears over global warming, part of an intensifying drive to get the US
to treat the issue seriously. Sources have told The Observer that American
officials appeared extremely sensitive about the issue when faced with
complaints that America's public stance appeared increasingly out of touch.

One even alleged that the White House had written to complain about some of
the comments attributed to Professor Sir David King, Tony Blair's chief
scientific adviser, after he branded the President's position on the issue as

Among those scientists present at the White House talks were Professor John
Schellnhuber, former chief environmental adviser to the German government and
head of the UK's leading group of climate scientists at the Tyndall Centre
for Climate Change Research. He said that the Pentagon's internal fears
should prove the 'tipping point' in persuading Bush to accept climatic

Sir John Houghton, former chief executive of the Meteorological Office - and
the first senior figure to liken the threat of climate change to that of
terrorism - said: 'If the Pentagon is sending out that sort of message, then
this is an important document indeed.'

Bob Watson, chief scientist for the World Bank and former chair of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, added that the Pentagon's dire
warnings could no longer be ignored.

'Can Bush ignore the Pentagon? It's going be hard to blow off this sort of
document. Its hugely embarrassing. After all, Bush's single highest priority
is national defence. The Pentagon is no wacko, liberal group, generally
speaking it is conservative. If climate change is a threat to national
security and the economy, then he has to act. There are two groups the Bush
Administration tend to listen to, the oil lobby and the Pentagon,' added

'You've got a President who says global warming is a hoax, and across the
Potomac river you've got a Pentagon preparing for climate wars. It's pretty
scary when Bush starts to ignore his own government on this issue,' said Rob
Gueterbock of Greenpeace.

Already, according to Randall and Schwartz, the planet is carrying a higher
population than it can sustain. By 2020 'catastrophic' shortages of water and
energy supply will become increasingly harder to overcome, plunging the
planet into war. They warn that 8,200 years ago climatic conditions brought
widespread crop failure, famine, disease and mass migration of populations
that could soon be repeated.

Randall told The Observer that the potential ramifications of rapid climate
change would create global chaos. 'This is depressing stuff,' he said. 'It is
a national security threat that is unique because there is no enemy to point
your guns at and we have no control over the threat.'

Randall added that it was already possibly too late to prevent a disaster
happening. 'We don't know exactly where we are in the process. It could start
tomorrow and we would not know for another five years,' he said.

'The consequences for some nations of the climate change are unbelievable. It
seems obvious that cutting the use of fossil fuels would be worthwhile.'

So dramatic are the report's scenarios, Watson said, that they may prove vital
in the US elections. Democratic frontrunner John Kerry is known to accept
climate change as a real problem. Scientists disillusioned with Bush's stance
are threatening to make sure Kerry uses the Pentagon report in his campaign.

The fact that Marshall is behind its scathing findings will aid Kerry's cause.
Marshall, 82, is a Pentagon legend who heads a secretive think-tank dedicated
to weighing risks to national security called the Office of Net Assessment.
Dubbed 'Yoda' by Pentagon insiders who respect his vast experience, he is
credited with being behind the Department of Defence's push on
ballistic-missile defence.

Symons, who left the EPA in protest at political interference, said that the
suppression of the report was a further instance of the White House trying to
bury evidence of climate change. 'It is yet another example of why this
government should stop burying its head in the sand on this issue.'

Symons said the Bush administration's close links to high-powered energy and
oil companies was vital in understanding why climate change was received
sceptically in the Oval Office. 'This administration is ignoring the evidence
in order to placate a handful of large energy and oil companies,' he added.

Key findings of the Pentagon,12374,1153547,00.html

· Future wars will be fought over the issue of survival rather than religion,
ideology or national honour.

· By 2007 violent storms smash coastal barriers rendering large parts of the
Netherlands inhabitable. Cities like The Hague are abandoned. In California
the delta island levees in the Sacramento river area are breached, disrupting
the aqueduct system transporting water from north to south.

· Between 2010 and 2020 Europe is hardest hit by climatic change with an
average annual temperature drop of 6F. Climate in Britain becomes colder and
drier as weather patterns begin to resemble Siberia.

· Deaths from war and famine run into the millions until the planet's
population is reduced by such an extent the Earth can cope.

· Riots and internal conflict tear apart India, South Africa and Indonesia.

· Access to water becomes a major battleground. The Nile, Danube and Amazon
are all mentioned as being high risk.

· A 'significant drop' in the planet's ability to sustain its present
population will become apparent over the next 20 years.

· Rich areas like the US and Europe would become 'virtual fortresses' to
prevent millions of migrants from entering after being forced from land
drowned by sea-level rise or no longer able to grow crops. Waves of
boatpeople pose significant problems.

· Nuclear arms proliferation is inevitable. Japan, South Korea, and Germany
develop nuclear-weapons capabilities, as do Iran, Egypt and North Korea.
Israel, China, India and Pakistan also are poised to use the bomb.

· By 2010 the US and Europe will experience a third more days with peak
temperatures above 90F. Climate becomes an 'economic nuisance' as storms,
droughts and hot spells create havoc for farmers.

· More than 400m people in subtropical regions at grave risk.

· Europe will face huge internal struggles as it copes with massive numbers of
migrants washing up on its shores. Immigrants from Scandinavia seek warmer
climes to the south. Southern Europe is beleaguered by refugees from hard-hit
countries in Africa.

· Mega-droughts affect the world's major breadbaskets, including America's
Midwest, where strong winds bring soil loss.

· China's huge population and food demand make it particularly vulnerable.
Bangladesh becomes nearly uninhabitable because of a rising sea level, which
contaminates the inland water supplies.


mandato da Ivan Ingrilli il Lunedì Febbraio 23 2004
aggiornato il Sabato Settembre 24 2005

URL of this article:





Readers' Comments

La prossima guerra? Quella del clima. Molto peggiore di al Qaida, forse gi persa, sicuramente inevitabile se non si prenderanno presto misure radicali.
Rapporto segreto del Pentagono: I cambiamenti climatici pi pericolosi di al Qaida
Davide Ranzini
Fonte: l'Unit 22.02.04
23 febbraio 2004

La prossima guerra? Quella del clima. Molto peggiore di al Qaida, forse gi persa, sicuramente inevitabile se non si prenderanno presto misure radicali. Parola del Pentagono, che ha fatto arrivare sul tavolo del presidente Gorge W. Bush un documento segreto, preparato da due consulenti della Cia.

Lo rivela il settimanale britannico The Observer, in un a
rticolo datato New York e firmato da Mark Towsend e Paul Harris. Secondo gli autori, i cambiamenti climatici dei prossimi 20 anni potrebbero portare a una catastrofe di proporzioni immani, che costerebbe milioni di morti in guerre e disastri naturali. Il documento, tenuto nascosto dai capi del Pentagono e finito nelle mani del giornale britannico, mette in guardia il governo statunitense dai mutamenti del clima che si stanno verificando. Le maggiori citt europee, rivela lo sconvolgente rapporto, potrebbero essere sommerse dall'aumento del livello d'acqua dei mari, mentre in Gran Bretagna nel 2020 il clima potrebbe diventare siberiano.

Disordini e conflitti saranno le caratteristiche endemiche della vita. Ancora una volta le guerre potrebbero determinare il destino dell'umanit, scrivono gli autori, Peter Schwartz, un consulente della Cia, gi capo della pianificazione del gruppo petrolifero Royal Dutch/Shell, e Doug Randall, del think tank conservatore californiano Global Business Network. Lo studio stato preparato su istruzioni di Andrew Marshall, potentissimo capo dell?Office of Net Assessment del Pentagono. L?ottaduenne Marshall ritenuto essere la mente dietro tutte le pi recenti scelte dell?amministrazione statunitense nel campo della difesa nazionale, a cominciare dal programma di difesa antimissili balistici, che tante polemiche ha suscitato nei mesi scorsi.

I cambiamenti climatici dovrebbero divenire oggetto di un dibattito scientifico inerente la sicurezza degli Stati Uniti, sostengono gli autori della ricerca. Un imminente scenario di cambiamenti catastrofici del clima plausibile e potrebbe compromettere la sicurezza degli Stati Uniti in un modo che va considerato da subito, concludono Schwartz e Randall.

Doug Randall, citato da The Observer, spiega che gli effetti di un rapido cambio del clima potrebbero portare al caos globale. E' una cosa deprimente, ed una minaccia alla sicurezza nazionale che senza precedenti, perch non c' nessun nemico contro cui puntare le armi e non abbiamo alcuna possibilit di controllo su questa minaccia ha spiegato Randall, secondo il quale forse gi troppo tardi per impedire il disastro. Non sappiamo esattamente a che punto siamo di questo processo. Potrebbe iniziare domani e potremmo non accorgercene prima di cinque anni spiega. Le conseguenze per alcune nazioni del cambio di clima sono inimmaginabili. Sembra ovvio che sarebbe necessario ridurre l?uso dei combustibili fossili.

Un discorso, quest?ultimo, che difficilmente pu essere recepito dall?amministrazione Bush, condizionata com' dalla potentissima lobby petrolifera statunitense. Ma questa volta l?allarme non viene da qualche scienziato qualsiasi o da qualche gruppo ambientalista. E' il Pentagono a porsi, seriamente a quanto pare, il problema dei cambiamenti climatici, e difficilmente il presidente che ama presentarsi agli americani come il commander in chief, il comandante in capo dell?America impegnata nella guerra globale contro il terrorismo, potr ignorarlo.

Nei giorni scorsi, l?amministrazione Bush era stata pesantemente criticata da un gruppo di eminenti scienziati della Union of Concerned Scientists che la accusavano di aver selezionato attentamente i risultati di studi scientifici per giustificare le proprie scelte politiche, nascondendo quelli che giungevano a conclusioni contrarie. Jeremy Simons, dell?Epa, l?agenzia statunitense per la protezione dell?ambiente, ha commentato come aver tenuto nascosto il documento per quattro mesi era un ulteriore esempio di come la Casa Bianca tenti di occultare la minaccia dei cambiamenti climatici per non cambiare politica.

Come noto, gli Stati Uniti sono tra i pi fermi oppositori al trattato di Kyoto sul contenimento delle emissioni inquinanti, Il governo statunitense ritiene che un?autoregolamentazione delle industrie sia sufficiente. Una posizione in parte sostenuta anche dal governo Berlusconi.

Bob Watson, responsabile scientifico della Banca Mondiale, gi presidente del Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici, ha dichiarato a The Obeserver che i severi avvertimenti del Pentagono non possono essere ignorati: Pu Bush ignorare il Pentagono? E' ora difficile ed imbarazzante far sparire questo documento. Dopo tutto, la priorit di Bush la difesa nazionale. Il Pentagono non un estremista, n un gruppo liberale, piuttosto conservatore. Se il clima cambia diventa una minaccia per la sicurezza nazionale e per l'economia, quindi Bush deve agire. Ci sono due gruppi che l?amministrazione Bush tende ad ascoltare, la lobby petrolifera e il Pentagono.

Per Rob Gueterbock, di Greenpeace, c' un presidente che sostiene che la storia del riscaldamento globale una stupidaggine, e dall?altra parte c' il Pentagono che si prepara per la guerra del clima. E' terribile che il presidente ignori il suo stesso governo su questo tema.


Mandato da: meme il Febbraio 23, 2004


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